On January 12th, the USDA released their final report on 2016 agricultural production in the US. The chart above tells the story for soy. The final yield for the 83 million acres of soy in the US was52.1 bushels per acre (bu/ac). TellusLabs’ daily Kernel estimates closedwithin 1% of that final outcome onSeptember 13th, while the USDA’s own monthly forecasts did not enter that 1% envelope untilNovember 9th, a difference ofnearly 2 months.
It is also worth noting that our last soy forecast of the season, posted on Oct 12th, was52.1 bu/ac —exactly the same as the USDAs end of season reported outcome. Corn (not shown) had a record-breaking year in the US, exceeding all analyst expectations with a final reported outcome of174.6 bushels per acre. Our Kernel forecast steadily converged with the USDA final outcome, ending the season at173.1 bu/ac,within 1% of actual.
October 12th Kernel BETA report.