This morning, at 9am EST, members of the Kernel BETA from TellusLabs received our daily yield forecasts: 51.4 Bu/Ac and 171.0 Bu/Ac for US soybeans and US corn, respectively. These forecasts reflect widespread favorable growing conditions throughout most of the United States, and especially in the midwest where a large majority of US corn and soy are grown.
This afternoon, at noon EST, the USDA released its September Production Report, revising their August soybean forecast upward to 50.6 Bu/Ac (1.7 Bu/Ac higher), and revising their August US corn forecast downward to 174.1 Bu/Ac (1.0 Bu/Ac lower). Farmdoc Daily provided comprehensive commentary on the USDA announcement today.
Our revised Kernel dashboards from this afternoon reflect this new government position.
As is clear from the time series view on the dashboard (lower right), the new USDA release brings the government forecast significantly closer to consensus with TellusLabs: soy moves 25% closer to consensus (now 1.8% lower than TellusLabs), and corn moves 67% closer to consensus (now 1.6% higher than TellusLabs).
Since its initial release on August 22nd, the TellusLabs forecast for soy has been consistently higher than available USDA forecasts, in response to consistently excellent growing conditions and crop reports in the largest soy growing counties. Conversely, our corn forecast has remained below that of the USDA since the August 12th announcement, largely because our models suggest yields that are modestly lower than USDA projections in some key corn-growing regions.